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Saturday, May 17, 2003

DPG 1992, draft
May 16, 2003

I found some links to the original New York Times and Washington Post stories about the leaked draft of the Defense Planning Guidance document of 1992. The Lithuania Scenario raised some concerns at the time and temporarily tarnished Wolfowitz. Buchanan raised concerns during the 2000 campaign, but otherwise that aspect of the DPG has been forgotten.

Pentagon Imagines New Enemies To Fight in Post-Cold-War Era
Seven war scenarios to the 21st century
The New York Times -- February 17 1992

by Patrick E. Tyler
[-- Have not found the body of this article on line. --]

The Washinton Post -- February 20, 1992

by Barton Gellman
A classified study prepared as the basis for the Pentagon's budgetary planning through the end of the century casts Russia as the gravest potential threat to U.S. vital interests and presumes the United States would spearhead a NATO counterattack if Russia launched an invasion of Lithuania U.S. intervention in Lithuania, which would reverse decades of American restraint in the former Soviet Union's Baltic sphere of influence, is one of seven hypothetical roads to war that the Pentagon studied to help the military services size and justify their forces through 1999. In the study, the Pentagon neither advocates nor predicts any specific conflict.

The Lithuanian scenario contemplates a major war by land, sea and air in which 24 NATO divisions, 70 fighter squadrons and six aircraft carrier battle groups would keep the Russian navy "bottled up in the eastern Baltic," bomb supply lines in Russia and use armored formations to expel Russian forces from Lithuania. The authors state that Russia is unlikely to respond with nuclear weapons, but they provide no basis for that assessment.

Other scenarios include a reprise of the Persian Gulf War, a major war with North Korea, simultaneous wars against Iraq and North Korea, coup attempts in Panama and the Philippines, and the reemergence of a hostile superpower -- Russia, with or without other former Soviet republics -- capable of threatening U.S. interests around the globe. Elements of the Pentagon document, a copy of which has been obtained by The Washington Post, were first reported this week in the New York Times.

U.S. Strategy Plan Calls for Insuring No Rivals Develop A One-Superpower World
Pentagon’s Document Outlines Ways to Thwart Challenges to Primacy of America
The New York Times -- March 8, 1992

By Patrick E. Tyler
WASHINGTON, March 7 – In a broad new policy statement that is in its final drafting phase, the Defense Department asserts that America’s political and military mission in the post-cold-war era will be to ensure that no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territories of the former Soviet Union.

Excerpts From Pentagon's Plan: "Prevent the Re-Emergence of a New Rival"
The New York Times -- Mar 8, 1992

Keeping the U.S. First; Pentagon Would Preclude a Rival Superpower
The Washinton Post -- March 11, 1992

by Barton Gellman
In a classified blueprint intended to help "set the nation's direction for the next century," the Defense Department calls for concerted efforts to preserve American global military supremacy and to thwart the emergence of a rival superpower in Europe, Asia or the former Soviet Union. The 46-page memorandum describes itself as "definitive guidance from the Secretary of Defense" for preparation of defense budgets for fiscal 1994 through 1999. It defies the predictions of some outside analysts that the Pentagon would relax resistance to further budget cuts after the turmoil of the election year.

PENTAGON DROPS GOAL OF BLOCKING NEW SUPERPOWERS (scroll down to find linked story)
The New York Times -- May 24, 1992

WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon has revised a draft of its post-cold-war strategy, dropping language from an earlier document advocating the perpetuation of a one-superpower world in which the United States would work to prevent the rise of any "competitors" to its primacy in Western Europe and East Asia. The new document, approved by Defense Secretary Dick Cheney on Friday, sharpens the American commitment to collective military action as a "key feature" of United States strategy and looks forward to the decline of military investment as the principal means of balancing power among nations.

Pentagon Abandons Goal Of Thwarting U.S. Rivals
6-Year Plan Softens Earlier Tone on Allies
The Washington Post -- May 24, 1992

by Barton Gellman
The Defense Department, in its first broad strategic planning document of the post-Cold War era, has abandoned a controversial assertion that the principal goal of U.S. national security policy should be to thwart the emergence of a new rival to American military supremacy.

Instead, the country's highest defense priority, according to the "Defense Planning Guidance" for fiscal years 1994-99 signed Friday by Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney, is the preservation and expansion of the system of alliances that has built "sustained cooperation among major democratic powers" since World War II.

A near-final draft of the new guidance document made available to The Washington Post contains little trace of an earlier version's muscular tone of realpolitik. That version sought to discourage challenges to U.S. leadership from allies such as Japan and Germany and spoke of deterring other "potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or global role."

Though commanding some support in administration and public debates, the earlier draft, dated Feb. 18 and made public in March, aroused a political and diplomatic backlash against what was seen as a bid for a new world order of benevolent domination.

- mark 5-17-2003 9:52 am [link] [25 refs] [2 comments]