Pre-war advice was no new WMDs
The Australian via NEWS.com.au -- 18 February 2004
By Cameron Stewart
AUSTRALIA'S spy agencies told the Government before the Iraq war there was no evidence that Saddam Hussein was building new chemical and biological weapons.
But Australian intelligence agencies did conclude - wrongly - that Saddam's regime harboured a modest stockpile of useable illicit weapons left over from the 1990-91 Gulf War.
The Government used this key assessment as the basis for war, arguing that Iraq's possession of these WMDs posed a "real and unacceptable threat".
However, the spy agencies also issued caveats on this assessment, saying Iraq's WMDs were likely to be limited in number and in poor condition
As pressure mounts for an independent inquiry into intelligence on Iraq, The Australian has confirmed key aspects of what the country's spy agencies told the Government in the weeks before war.
Australian spy agencies were significantly more cautious than their US and British counterparts, but still made the key mistake of overestimating Iraq's WMD capability.
Of the two Australian agencies providing intelligence assessments on Iraq, the Defence Intelligence Organisation was more sceptical about Iraq's capabilities than was the Prime Minister's assessment agency, the Office of National Assessments.
The Australian understands that both the DIO and ONA told the Government that:
In several instances, senior government ministers echoed public claims made by US President George W.Bush and his British counterpart Tony Blair about Iraq's WMDs before Australian agencies had a chance to assess the claims independently.
However, it is understood that Australian agencies did not caution against such comments, before or after they were made.
As one source said: "We may need to be more proactive next time."
A parliamentary joint committee examining the intelligence received on Iraq is due to release its findings on March 1.
It is expected to distribute blame across the spectrum, criticising Australian agencies for overestimating the WMD threat.
The Government is also expected to be criticised, but will not be accused of deliberately misrepresenting - or "sexing up" - the intelligence available to it.
Labor is calling for a larger independent inquiry on intelligence with the powers of a royal commission.
The Government is expected to call a broader inquiry into intelligence on Iraq shortly after the parliamentary report is tabled.
The push for a broader inquiry reflects concerns that the parliamentary committee was not given enough time or access to key intelligence to make conclusive findings.
The Australian understands that committee members were given access to the classified final ONA and DIO analysis on Iraq in the lead-up to war.
But they were not given access to the raw material upon which those assessments were based, for fear that sources might be compromised.
The committee was, however, able to compare and contrast the final ONA and DIO assessments with the public comments made by John Howard and his senior ministers in the lead-up to war.