I'm having trouble finding some info. Michigan and Florida have 313 democratic delegates between them (these are the delegates that were stripped.) But how does that break down?
Florida went Clinton 49.7%, Obama 33, Edwards 14.4. Michigan was Clinton 55.4%, Uncommitted 39.9. So assuming these states assign delegates proportionally it's easy to see how you could seat Florida - but Michigan really seems unfair. Obviously a lot of that 39.9 would have gone to Obama.
If they are sat, how many delegates does it give each of them? What's the best case for Hillary, ~160 more delegates? Obama is harder to guess without knowing the Florida/Michigan delegate split, but something around 50 from Florida? So best for Hillary is a little over 100 delegate gain on Obama?
I'm trying to figure how much of a lead Obama needs to be able to just agree to seat those two states and still have the lead.
Florida has a total of 210 delegates and 31 alternates.
The Michigan Democratic Party said Friday that Clinton will get 73 pledged delegates after winning 55 percent of the statewide vote.
Another 55 delegates will be uncommitted since 40 percent of the Democratic voters chose uncommitted. Because Barack Obama and John Edwards had taken their names off the ballot, many of their supporters voted for uncommitted.
The state also has 28 superdelegates, many of whom have not endorsed a favorite candidate, for a total of 156.
210
*73
*55
------
338?
State Pledged Delegate Super-delegate
Michigan (128) (29)
Florida (185) (25)
florida
clinton 93
obama 62
michigan
clinton 73 although proportionally it would be 70
outstanding votes = 55
approx net 50 for clinton.
Is either state contemplating a do-over? I had heard that idea being floated.
Yeah, I thought the do over was a decent idea as well. But I read an article which quoted a Florida Dem official who said there was 0% chance of it happening because of money. Specifically they wouldn't even have enough money to alert everyone in the state that it was happening. And they don't want to waste money they can use to GOTV for the general election. I assume Michigan would be in the same financial boat. Still, it would be the only fair way - especially for Michigan.
Looks like they may have found a way to use soft money for the do over in Florida.
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Florida went Clinton 49.7%, Obama 33, Edwards 14.4. Michigan was Clinton 55.4%, Uncommitted 39.9. So assuming these states assign delegates proportionally it's easy to see how you could seat Florida - but Michigan really seems unfair. Obviously a lot of that 39.9 would have gone to Obama.
If they are sat, how many delegates does it give each of them? What's the best case for Hillary, ~160 more delegates? Obama is harder to guess without knowing the Florida/Michigan delegate split, but something around 50 from Florida? So best for Hillary is a little over 100 delegate gain on Obama?
I'm trying to figure how much of a lead Obama needs to be able to just agree to seat those two states and still have the lead.
- jim 2-17-2008 6:23 pm
Florida has a total of 210 delegates and 31 alternates.
- dave 2-17-2008 7:28 pm
The Michigan Democratic Party said Friday that Clinton will get 73 pledged delegates after winning 55 percent of the statewide vote.
Another 55 delegates will be uncommitted since 40 percent of the Democratic voters chose uncommitted. Because Barack Obama and John Edwards had taken their names off the ballot, many of their supporters voted for uncommitted.
The state also has 28 superdelegates, many of whom have not endorsed a favorite candidate, for a total of 156.
- dave 2-17-2008 7:32 pm
210
*73
*55
------
338?
- dave 2-17-2008 7:34 pm
State Pledged Delegate Super-delegate
Michigan (128) (29)
Florida (185) (25)
- dave 2-17-2008 7:41 pm
florida
clinton 93
obama 62
michigan
clinton 73 although proportionally it would be 70
outstanding votes = 55
approx net 50 for clinton.
- dave 2-17-2008 7:48 pm
Is either state contemplating a do-over? I had heard that idea being floated.
- mark 2-17-2008 9:20 pm
Yeah, I thought the do over was a decent idea as well. But I read an article which quoted a Florida Dem official who said there was 0% chance of it happening because of money. Specifically they wouldn't even have enough money to alert everyone in the state that it was happening. And they don't want to waste money they can use to GOTV for the general election. I assume Michigan would be in the same financial boat. Still, it would be the only fair way - especially for Michigan.
- jim 2-17-2008 10:40 pm
Looks like they may have found a way to use soft money for the do over in Florida.
- jim 3-08-2008 6:46 pm