Josh has some thoughts on a WaPo interview with Clinton. She appears to be saying she will stay in until the convention where she'll fight to try to seat Florida and Michigan. The conventional wisdom is that this drawn out democratic primary hurts the dems. But suddenly I'm not so sure.
My one horse race belief that hasn't changed throughout this entire show is that Clinton's negatives, while obviously quite high, are still under reported. A lot of people really hate her. It doesn't exactly make sense, but anecdotally this is what I have found. And it's why I've always been against nominating her (in a year when otherwise republican turnout might be quite low.)
But maybe her staying in the race actually helps Obama. Especially if it's real nasty and comes down to spilling some blood on the convention floor. Obviously this will dominate the news. And my new feeling is that all the Clinton haters out there will be drawn, like magic, into empathizing with Obama. This is going to be a lot of independent swing voters and center leaning republicans. They want to see Clinton go down. If they need to vote for McCain to do it, they will. But if Obama can do it, especially after a long fight in which it looks like she might actually pull it out, then he'll be the hero. And he really will have beaten her in a final way since I don't think she's viable in 2012 or 2016 if she really drags the party through this all the way to the convention. She's rolling the dice very big, burning all her bridges, and if she fails then it's over. I could even imagine her losing her Senate seat (okay, probably not.)
You can probably tell I haven't thought this through so much yet, but what do you think? Is Clinton hatred really that strong? Can a long fight with Obama actually rally people to his side rather than tear the party apart? The more outrageous, nasty, and underhanded her campaign appears to be, the better for Obama? He'll be the one who killed the wicked witch.
Again, note, I don't think *I* have Clinton Derangement Syndrome. I like all of her domestic policies. I'm just saying I think CDS is real, and can move a lot of votes one way or the other.
Or to say it all the other way: if Obama had won NH and just swept to the nomination, I think he'd inherit a lot of the anti-dem feelings that are out there. But since these anti-dem feelings have their strongest manifestation as anti-Clinton feelings, by engaging in a long bloody struggle and beating her Obama actually becomes a hero to these anti-dem forces and picks up a lot of middle ground votes that might otherwise have gone to McCain.
On the other hand, I guess she really has no choice but to say that she's staying in all the way no matter what just to stop this loose talk about her stepping out. She can't have that idea pick up any steam before PA. But then in reality she can still get out at any moment regardless of having previously said she wouldn't. And then her "taking one for the team" after saying she would never do it maybe sets her up for 2012 (if Obama loses,) or 2016 if he wins.
one good thing about the pastor wright hullaballoo was that it came out during the primary so that it might have less impact during the presidential campaign. so in a way the clinton venom has helped inoculate obama against some future outbreaks which is a good thing. i dont really see how her driving up his negatives helps him all that much in the general election though. it seems more likely to drive independents and reagan democrats who were against the war back towards mccain. id think the renewed civil strife in iraq would do more for obama than clinton derangement syndrome come november.
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My one horse race belief that hasn't changed throughout this entire show is that Clinton's negatives, while obviously quite high, are still under reported. A lot of people really hate her. It doesn't exactly make sense, but anecdotally this is what I have found. And it's why I've always been against nominating her (in a year when otherwise republican turnout might be quite low.)
But maybe her staying in the race actually helps Obama. Especially if it's real nasty and comes down to spilling some blood on the convention floor. Obviously this will dominate the news. And my new feeling is that all the Clinton haters out there will be drawn, like magic, into empathizing with Obama. This is going to be a lot of independent swing voters and center leaning republicans. They want to see Clinton go down. If they need to vote for McCain to do it, they will. But if Obama can do it, especially after a long fight in which it looks like she might actually pull it out, then he'll be the hero. And he really will have beaten her in a final way since I don't think she's viable in 2012 or 2016 if she really drags the party through this all the way to the convention. She's rolling the dice very big, burning all her bridges, and if she fails then it's over. I could even imagine her losing her Senate seat (okay, probably not.)
You can probably tell I haven't thought this through so much yet, but what do you think? Is Clinton hatred really that strong? Can a long fight with Obama actually rally people to his side rather than tear the party apart? The more outrageous, nasty, and underhanded her campaign appears to be, the better for Obama? He'll be the one who killed the wicked witch.
Again, note, I don't think *I* have Clinton Derangement Syndrome. I like all of her domestic policies. I'm just saying I think CDS is real, and can move a lot of votes one way or the other.
Or to say it all the other way: if Obama had won NH and just swept to the nomination, I think he'd inherit a lot of the anti-dem feelings that are out there. But since these anti-dem feelings have their strongest manifestation as anti-Clinton feelings, by engaging in a long bloody struggle and beating her Obama actually becomes a hero to these anti-dem forces and picks up a lot of middle ground votes that might otherwise have gone to McCain.
- jim 3-30-2008 8:18 pm
On the other hand, I guess she really has no choice but to say that she's staying in all the way no matter what just to stop this loose talk about her stepping out. She can't have that idea pick up any steam before PA. But then in reality she can still get out at any moment regardless of having previously said she wouldn't. And then her "taking one for the team" after saying she would never do it maybe sets her up for 2012 (if Obama loses,) or 2016 if he wins.
- jim 3-30-2008 8:24 pm
one good thing about the pastor wright hullaballoo was that it came out during the primary so that it might have less impact during the presidential campaign. so in a way the clinton venom has helped inoculate obama against some future outbreaks which is a good thing. i dont really see how her driving up his negatives helps him all that much in the general election though. it seems more likely to drive independents and reagan democrats who were against the war back towards mccain. id think the renewed civil strife in iraq would do more for obama than clinton derangement syndrome come november.
- dave 3-30-2008 9:56 pm