The chessboard is really heating up. I'm finding it so interesting to watch Russia maneuver. And, to my eyes, the West flounder. Not saying it's a good thing but just that it's fascinating. Canceling the South Stream pipeline is a gigantic deal that seems to be getting very little attention. Are people hearing about this? I think an actual shooting war with Russia is now a very real possibility. Certainly we are at war in every other way. Yet very little discussion of it that I'm seeing in the media.
crazy!!!! just plain crazy!! world cup 2018 is russia
dont worry, mike. ryley is not in contention until 2026. im sure the nuclear winter will be ebbing by then. but if i were you id get him comfortable training with a gas mask on.
youre gonna try to make me pay attention to foreign affairs. thats very unamerican of you. im confused as to what our aims are. they are trying to contain russian expansionist tendencies by encircling them with nato while forcing them to share a portion of pipeline profits on the oil/gas headed toward europe?
I think our aims were to pull Ukraine into the Euro-orbit so their resources could be exploited by Joe Biden's son, etc. Putin took advantage of the confusion we created to grab Crimea, and the idiots in Congress had a Cold War flashback and needlessly accelerated the rhetoric, making the world a more dangerous (as in end-times) place again.
Meanwhile Dave Emory is worried about the fascists in the Ukraine.
Dave the issue is we are told Ryley he gets a graduation trip and he asked to go to the World Cup, so war or no war we are off to Russia.....and Dave he can be in the 2022 Cup:>)
maybe if he had been born with a ball in his crib. at this rate hell be lucky to start on his coed intramural college squad, the vaped crusaders. im talking about putin, of course.
I agree with Tom, but I think it's a little more complex (probably Tom does too - I'm sure a quick blog comment might not represent his full position.) I've tried to write this answer a bunch of times, but I'm busy with the server move and my attempts have spun out of control each time. There are a ton of pieces. Plus, it's not clear my answer is worth the effort since, in short, what do I know?
Dave sums up the situation with the South Stream pipeline project well: "they are trying to contain russian expansionist tendencies by encircling them with nato while forcing them to share a portion of pipeline profits on the oil/gas headed toward europe?" But I think we have to go back to the fall of the Berlin Wall to start to understand (or, at least, this is what made it all make a bit of sense to me.)
In late 1989 the Berlin Wall came down. Throughout the early nineties the US (and NATO) negotiated with the Soviets (and then the Russians, as the USSR was breaking up at the same time) about German reunification and Soviet (later Russian) troop withdrawal. In '94 all Russian troops were withdrawn.
The details of these negotiations are the matter of some controversy, and it is this controversy that underlies our problems in Ukraine today. Basically, to over simplify, the Russians say that we promised no eastward expansion of NATO in exchange for reunification and troop withdrawals from (formerly East) Germany. The US says "No, we didn't exactly promise that."
And of course, subsequently, NATO did expand east gobbling up (I think) 12 former Soviet satellites and pushing NATO quite close to the Russian border.
None of this NATO eastward expansion was about energy policy in any direct way that I can see. It is simply about pushing our troops right up to the Russian border. (Not to mention encircling them with bases from other directions as well.) The US is facing off against Russia militarily, even if both sides might hope to never actually have to fight.
This is all spelled out in Brzezinski's book The Grand Chessboard which argues that Eurasia (Central Asia) is the key to global power and, specifically, the US needs to make sure that no other power is allowed to control Central Asia. I think most people in power in the US would agree with some form of this (minus Ron Paul and a very few other isolationists.) And, of course, at this high level it is more or less about energy.
Fast forward to the recent Ukraine crisis. We drop $5 billion on setting the stage for the coup to put our people in power. We make some noises about Ukraine joining NATO. This would literally put us on Russia's border. This really couldn't be more provocative to the Russians. Imagine Russian tanks and missiles in Juarez? Or Toronto? We would completely FREAK out.
The direct removal of energy resources (oil and gas fracking in eastern Ukraine) I think had little to do with our desire to bring Ukraine into our orbit. It's all about squeezing the Russians. A little Tom Friedman "suck on this" action. But since the Russian battle orders specifically call for the use of first strike tactical nuclear weapons in any case where Russia is existentially threatened, it's hard to see how the US plan could really involve a direct military confrontation. Instead, we are trying to cause Putin problems, in the hopes that we can get him replaced with "one of us."
Inside Russian political circles there are two opposing groups: the Atlantic Integrationists (Medvedev) and the Eurasian Sovereignists (Putin). The AI's look west and want economic partnerships with Europe and the US. The ES's want independence from the West. We want to weaken Putin so the AI's can take over. Drawing him into what we think will be an unpopular (with the Russian people) war in Ukraine was I think the plan. But Putin has been very smart in the face of huge provocations.
The long standing US supremacy is coming under a lot of pressure. Russia and China (and India, Brazil, South Africa - the BRICS) are laying the groundwork for the end of the US Dollar as world reserve currency. This is going to be a very long process, but the writing is clearly on the wall. Our elites are desperate for this not to happen, so taking down Putin is literally a matter of life or death.
I think we (our ruling elites) realize that our time is limited so we have to act. We are pushing Russia very hard. Because the more time we give them, the weaker our position becomes (as they accumulate gold, make trading agreements for energy resources that are not settled in US dollars, create alternatives to the IMF, the BIS, and the inter bank computer networks like SWIFT.) But Putin just will not take the bait. He keeps responding so reasonably. It must be pissing our elite off!
Europe depends on Russian gas. They have no other options at the moment. We cannot ship them gas from the US (just not possible in terms of shipping capacity.) And they can't get it from Iran for political reasons. And they can't get it from Saudi Arabia or Qatar because there is no pipeline to carry the gas (it would have to go through Syria which is why we - and especially the Qataris are fighting to overthrow Assad.) So Europe has to get its' gas from Russia. But they expect to do this in the western way which is to "promote democracy" and "open culture" in the target country (the one with energy resources) and then send in western oil companies to do the actual extraction (who will then make some deal with a local elite who they will incredibly enrich but give nothing to the people of the country.) Putin said Fuck you to all those plans. You want Russian gas you deal with Russian companies.
When Putin came to power he went to war with the Russian Oligarchs (or a large subset of them anyway). These were the local elites that the Western powers were enriching in exchange for letting the West extract all the value from post Soviet Russia. He nationalized Gazprom (the largest natural gas extractor in the world) to avoid this same situation. And so we (and Europe) are mad that things aren't going our way (why can't Russia be like Nigeria and just give us all their energy wealth!!!??!!)
A lot of Russian gas flows through Ukraine so the problems there are a big problem for Europe. Large parts of Europe will literally freeze this winter without Russian gas. But the new South Stream pipeline would have taken some of the pressure off. But Europe is a bunch of idiots and instead of being thankful to even get the gas they make all these crazy demands on Russia and try to charge Gazprom with being an illegal monopoly. They don't mention of course that if they had their way they would destroy Gazprom and suck all the energy out of Russia with only the smallest amount of compensation going as bribes to a very small Russian elite.
So again, very calmly, Putin says Fuck you and just cancels all of South Stream. And then signs a deal with the Turks which will amount to them buying the exact same amount of gas as Russia would have sold to Europe! Putin is brilliant (this also serves to pull the very strategically important Turkey away from NATO and towards the BRICS.)
The Europeans still seem to think that they are as important to Russia as Russia is to them. The problem is that this isn't true. Russia can replace Europe as a market with its' new partners (China, India, Turkey, etc...) But Europe can't replace Russia as a supplier or as a market (Russia is a huge customer to German business who have no where else to sell their goods.)
The Bear grows stronger. But we keep pushing anyway, now desperate to bring someone opposed to Putin to power. But our efforts are almost comical. The scary part is that our elites have no backup plan. It's not like they can just give up on Eurasia. We are all in. And with the losing hand. That is a very dangerous situation. All it takes is one provocation too far and the shooting can start.
I'm over where the Ron Paul right meets the Dennis Kucinich left (but I prefer "non-interventionist" to "isolationist"). Congress just sneaked a bill through demonizing Russia and allowing all manner of revived cold war shenanigans. Who benefits, mainly? War profiteers, to use Kucinich's phrase.
I grew up with the worst of the '50s propaganda about the USSR ("you mean they burst into people's homes with guns to stop them from praying, mommy?" "that's right, son") and always half-suspected it was mostly lies. This was confirmed in 1989 when the big bad empire evaporated. The profiteers did a quick scramble and announced that it was because of Reagan's spending and threats that the USSR collapsed. Sure, right, OK.
A handful of crazy jihadis hasn't proven to be the boon to war spending that our oligarchs needed, so getting the Russkies back in the crosshairs is like a dream come true. You can say this is simplistic but my suspicions proved correct once so I'll go with that. Your analysis is appreciated but please factor in how much of this is a US-manipulated turn of events.
Yes I think it's almost completely US manipulated. Russia isn't a threat to me or you and Putin is not the as evil as Hitler as all western mainstream media would have you believe. My thoughts are just that the conflict being instigated by the western elites is not just some game to make a little more money. It's a life or death situation where they think they have to defeat Russia (and then China) in order to stay as top dog. We're basically saying the same thing. I think maybe I'm just giving our crazed warlord rulers more credit than you are. I think the people at the top really believe they have to fight (in some manner - maybe not militarily) Russia - and not just to make more money but to stay in their position at all. Also maybe I'm giving Russia more credit as well, in the sense that while I don't think they are any threat to you and me (there will be no Red Dawn scenario obviously) I think they are a real existential threat to the western elite (not in the short term, but still...) The difference this makes is that if the western elites were just after more money they would eventually back down when faced with tactical nukes in Europe. If they are fighting for their lives they might not back down no matter what. They might really be all in on this one.
Interestingly, it seems like Kissinger of all people is working the de-escalation side of things (especially over the Ukraine). Not sure if I'm actually on his side here or just misunderstanding his position.
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The chessboard is really heating up. I'm finding it so interesting to watch Russia maneuver. And, to my eyes, the West flounder. Not saying it's a good thing but just that it's fascinating. Canceling the South Stream pipeline is a gigantic deal that seems to be getting very little attention. Are people hearing about this? I think an actual shooting war with Russia is now a very real possibility. Certainly we are at war in every other way. Yet very little discussion of it that I'm seeing in the media.
- jim 12-06-2014 3:35 pm
crazy!!!! just plain crazy!! world cup 2018 is russia
- Skinny 12-06-2014 4:29 pm
dont worry, mike. ryley is not in contention until 2026. im sure the nuclear winter will be ebbing by then. but if i were you id get him comfortable training with a gas mask on.
- dave 12-06-2014 5:03 pm
youre gonna try to make me pay attention to foreign affairs. thats very unamerican of you.
im confused as to what our aims are. they are trying to contain russian expansionist tendencies by encircling them with nato while forcing them to share a portion of pipeline profits on the oil/gas headed toward europe?
- dave 12-06-2014 5:14 pm
I think our aims were to pull Ukraine into the Euro-orbit so their resources could be exploited by Joe Biden's son, etc. Putin took advantage of the confusion we created to grab Crimea, and the idiots in Congress had a Cold War flashback and needlessly accelerated the rhetoric, making the world a more dangerous (as in end-times) place again.
- tom moody 12-06-2014 10:21 pm
Meanwhile Dave Emory is worried about the fascists in the Ukraine.
- mark 12-06-2014 11:35 pm
Dave the issue is we are told Ryley he gets a graduation trip and he asked to go to the World Cup, so war or no war we are off to Russia.....and Dave he can be in the 2022 Cup:>)
- Skinny 12-07-2014 6:57 am
maybe if he had been born with a ball in his crib. at this rate hell be lucky to start on his coed intramural college squad, the vaped crusaders. im talking about putin, of course.
- dave 12-07-2014 2:47 pm
I agree with Tom, but I think it's a little more complex (probably Tom does too - I'm sure a quick blog comment might not represent his full position.) I've tried to write this answer a bunch of times, but I'm busy with the server move and my attempts have spun out of control each time. There are a ton of pieces. Plus, it's not clear my answer is worth the effort since, in short, what do I know?
Dave sums up the situation with the South Stream pipeline project well: "they are trying to contain russian expansionist tendencies by encircling them with nato while forcing them to share a portion of pipeline profits on the oil/gas headed toward europe?" But I think we have to go back to the fall of the Berlin Wall to start to understand (or, at least, this is what made it all make a bit of sense to me.)
In late 1989 the Berlin Wall came down. Throughout the early nineties the US (and NATO) negotiated with the Soviets (and then the Russians, as the USSR was breaking up at the same time) about German reunification and Soviet (later Russian) troop withdrawal. In '94 all Russian troops were withdrawn.
The details of these negotiations are the matter of some controversy, and it is this controversy that underlies our problems in Ukraine today. Basically, to over simplify, the Russians say that we promised no eastward expansion of NATO in exchange for reunification and troop withdrawals from (formerly East) Germany. The US says "No, we didn't exactly promise that."
And of course, subsequently, NATO did expand east gobbling up (I think) 12 former Soviet satellites and pushing NATO quite close to the Russian border.
None of this NATO eastward expansion was about energy policy in any direct way that I can see. It is simply about pushing our troops right up to the Russian border. (Not to mention encircling them with bases from other directions as well.) The US is facing off against Russia militarily, even if both sides might hope to never actually have to fight.
This is all spelled out in Brzezinski's book The Grand Chessboard which argues that Eurasia (Central Asia) is the key to global power and, specifically, the US needs to make sure that no other power is allowed to control Central Asia. I think most people in power in the US would agree with some form of this (minus Ron Paul and a very few other isolationists.) And, of course, at this high level it is more or less about energy.
Fast forward to the recent Ukraine crisis. We drop $5 billion on setting the stage for the coup to put our people in power. We make some noises about Ukraine joining NATO. This would literally put us on Russia's border. This really couldn't be more provocative to the Russians. Imagine Russian tanks and missiles in Juarez? Or Toronto? We would completely FREAK out.
The direct removal of energy resources (oil and gas fracking in eastern Ukraine) I think had little to do with our desire to bring Ukraine into our orbit. It's all about squeezing the Russians. A little Tom Friedman "suck on this" action. But since the Russian battle orders specifically call for the use of first strike tactical nuclear weapons in any case where Russia is existentially threatened, it's hard to see how the US plan could really involve a direct military confrontation. Instead, we are trying to cause Putin problems, in the hopes that we can get him replaced with "one of us."
Inside Russian political circles there are two opposing groups: the Atlantic Integrationists (Medvedev) and the Eurasian Sovereignists (Putin). The AI's look west and want economic partnerships with Europe and the US. The ES's want independence from the West. We want to weaken Putin so the AI's can take over. Drawing him into what we think will be an unpopular (with the Russian people) war in Ukraine was I think the plan. But Putin has been very smart in the face of huge provocations.
The long standing US supremacy is coming under a lot of pressure. Russia and China (and India, Brazil, South Africa - the BRICS) are laying the groundwork for the end of the US Dollar as world reserve currency. This is going to be a very long process, but the writing is clearly on the wall. Our elites are desperate for this not to happen, so taking down Putin is literally a matter of life or death.
I think we (our ruling elites) realize that our time is limited so we have to act. We are pushing Russia very hard. Because the more time we give them, the weaker our position becomes (as they accumulate gold, make trading agreements for energy resources that are not settled in US dollars, create alternatives to the IMF, the BIS, and the inter bank computer networks like SWIFT.) But Putin just will not take the bait. He keeps responding so reasonably. It must be pissing our elite off!
Europe depends on Russian gas. They have no other options at the moment. We cannot ship them gas from the US (just not possible in terms of shipping capacity.) And they can't get it from Iran for political reasons. And they can't get it from Saudi Arabia or Qatar because there is no pipeline to carry the gas (it would have to go through Syria which is why we - and especially the Qataris are fighting to overthrow Assad.) So Europe has to get its' gas from Russia. But they expect to do this in the western way which is to "promote democracy" and "open culture" in the target country (the one with energy resources) and then send in western oil companies to do the actual extraction (who will then make some deal with a local elite who they will incredibly enrich but give nothing to the people of the country.) Putin said Fuck you to all those plans. You want Russian gas you deal with Russian companies.
When Putin came to power he went to war with the Russian Oligarchs (or a large subset of them anyway). These were the local elites that the Western powers were enriching in exchange for letting the West extract all the value from post Soviet Russia. He nationalized Gazprom (the largest natural gas extractor in the world) to avoid this same situation. And so we (and Europe) are mad that things aren't going our way (why can't Russia be like Nigeria and just give us all their energy wealth!!!??!!)
A lot of Russian gas flows through Ukraine so the problems there are a big problem for Europe. Large parts of Europe will literally freeze this winter without Russian gas. But the new South Stream pipeline would have taken some of the pressure off. But Europe is a bunch of idiots and instead of being thankful to even get the gas they make all these crazy demands on Russia and try to charge Gazprom with being an illegal monopoly. They don't mention of course that if they had their way they would destroy Gazprom and suck all the energy out of Russia with only the smallest amount of compensation going as bribes to a very small Russian elite.
So again, very calmly, Putin says Fuck you and just cancels all of South Stream. And then signs a deal with the Turks which will amount to them buying the exact same amount of gas as Russia would have sold to Europe! Putin is brilliant (this also serves to pull the very strategically important Turkey away from NATO and towards the BRICS.)
The Europeans still seem to think that they are as important to Russia as Russia is to them. The problem is that this isn't true. Russia can replace Europe as a market with its' new partners (China, India, Turkey, etc...) But Europe can't replace Russia as a supplier or as a market (Russia is a huge customer to German business who have no where else to sell their goods.)
The Bear grows stronger. But we keep pushing anyway, now desperate to bring someone opposed to Putin to power. But our efforts are almost comical. The scary part is that our elites have no backup plan. It's not like they can just give up on Eurasia. We are all in. And with the losing hand. That is a very dangerous situation. All it takes is one provocation too far and the shooting can start.
- jim 12-15-2014 8:05 pm
I'm over where the Ron Paul right meets the Dennis Kucinich left (but I prefer "non-interventionist" to "isolationist"). Congress just sneaked a bill through demonizing Russia and allowing all manner of revived cold war shenanigans. Who benefits, mainly? War profiteers, to use Kucinich's phrase.
I grew up with the worst of the '50s propaganda about the USSR ("you mean they burst into people's homes with guns to stop them from praying, mommy?" "that's right, son") and always half-suspected it was mostly lies. This was confirmed in 1989 when the big bad empire evaporated. The profiteers did a quick scramble and announced that it was because of Reagan's spending and threats that the USSR collapsed. Sure, right, OK.
A handful of crazy jihadis hasn't proven to be the boon to war spending that our oligarchs needed, so getting the Russkies back in the crosshairs is like a dream come true. You can say this is simplistic but my suspicions proved correct once so I'll go with that. Your analysis is appreciated but please factor in how much of this is a US-manipulated turn of events.
- tom moody 12-17-2014 1:59 pm
Yes I think it's almost completely US manipulated. Russia isn't a threat to me or you and Putin is not the as evil as Hitler as all western mainstream media would have you believe. My thoughts are just that the conflict being instigated by the western elites is not just some game to make a little more money. It's a life or death situation where they think they have to defeat Russia (and then China) in order to stay as top dog. We're basically saying the same thing. I think maybe I'm just giving our crazed warlord rulers more credit than you are. I think the people at the top really believe they have to fight (in some manner - maybe not militarily) Russia - and not just to make more money but to stay in their position at all. Also maybe I'm giving Russia more credit as well, in the sense that while I don't think they are any threat to you and me (there will be no Red Dawn scenario obviously) I think they are a real existential threat to the western elite (not in the short term, but still...) The difference this makes is that if the western elites were just after more money they would eventually back down when faced with tactical nukes in Europe. If they are fighting for their lives they might not back down no matter what. They might really be all in on this one.
Interestingly, it seems like Kissinger of all people is working the de-escalation side of things (especially over the Ukraine). Not sure if I'm actually on his side here or just misunderstanding his position.
- jim 12-17-2014 6:37 pm