maybe 50 more years?

- steve 3-31-2011 9:53 am

wish I could live that long to see it
- Skinny 4-01-2011 2:06 pm [add a comment]

The article is a tiny bit simplistic I think. Maybe it's true (nobody really knows) that there is 50 years left at current consumption rates. But there are a ton of other factors involved. As supplies dwindle prices rise, and as prices rise people don't use as much oil. So it's not like oil is going to be ~$100 per barrel for the next 50 years and then suddenly it will run out. Instead, as it gets more and more scarce the price will rise. At $200 per barrel the world will use a lot less. At $300 per barrel even less. People will drive less (and buy less oil based manufactured goods) while at the same time alternative energy becomes more price competitive. So the oil won't ever run out, the price will just rise so much that use will drop and/or switch to alternative energies. And then there is a ton of oil in the ground that is just too expensive to get at given current prices. But at $300 per barrel we can go after those reserves profitably. So as prices rise consumption drops/shifts, and extractable supplies start to rise. Oil will be around for a long time.

Still, I think it's probably true that estimated proven reserves in the ground are over stated (i.e., by Saudi Arabia.) But that's a different story.
- jim 4-01-2011 5:23 pm [add a comment]

nice $12 a gallon for gas
- Skinny 4-02-2011 3:29 pm [add a comment]

But on the up side you'll drive less :-)
- jim 4-02-2011 4:14 pm [add a comment]

Hard to drive any less than I do now:>) I bought stock in Tesla Motor's today w/ my 401K and will deff own an electric car (if I get my license) maybe even a Tesla!!
- Skinny 4-02-2011 7:23 pm [add a comment]

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