Actual vs (prediction)
Kerry 39 (35)
Dean 26 (28)
Clark 12 (14)
Edwards 12 (15)
Lieberman 9 (5)
others 3 (3)
what can i say, i underestimated kerry's support and was overly generous to dean, clark and edwards. ; ) and i though lieberman would get crushed and drop out, but instead he got half-crushed and stays in.
get ready to hear every nasty thing about kerry ever. opposed Gulf War I, supported Gulf War II... not easy to spin out of... but it'll be fun to watch...
this isn't a prediction just a speculation...but doesn't it seem plausible...?
feb 3rd results:
delaware - kerry
south carolina - edwards
arizona - dean
missouri - kerry
oklahoma - kerry
north dakota - kerry
new mexico - kerry
post feb 3rd
- lieberman drops out
- clark drops out
feb 7 - 3 way race in michigan and washington. these are BETTER states for dean than the feb 3rd states. he'll still have the money and the organization to win...will he have the credibility?
given that Dean will certainly hang in there until at least Feb 7 and the bellwether Michigan primary, the support of the heavy industrial unions now becomes the biggest prize left in the race. Kerry voted for NAFTA -- he's vulnerable here.
But the AFL-CIO wants to back a winner. Here's the question -- how well does Dean need to do on Feb 3rd to keep the industrial unions at least _neutral_ through Feb. 7? How well does he have to do, and how badly does Kerry have to get beat up, for Dean to actually get their support? is that even possible anymore?
If Dean had won EITHER Iowa or New Hampshire, he'd have the nomination locked up right now.
Kerry had to win both, and it's still not enough.
But it sure is looking more and more and more likely.
|
Kerry 39 (35)
Dean 26 (28)
Clark 12 (14)
Edwards 12 (15)
Lieberman 9 (5)
others 3 (3)
what can i say, i underestimated kerry's support and was overly generous to dean, clark and edwards. ; ) and i though lieberman would get crushed and drop out, but instead he got half-crushed and stays in.
get ready to hear every nasty thing about kerry ever. opposed Gulf War I, supported Gulf War II... not easy to spin out of... but it'll be fun to watch...
this isn't a prediction just a speculation...but doesn't it seem plausible...?
feb 3rd results:
delaware - kerry
south carolina - edwards
arizona - dean
missouri - kerry
oklahoma - kerry
north dakota - kerry
new mexico - kerry
post feb 3rd
- lieberman drops out
- clark drops out
feb 7 - 3 way race in michigan and washington. these are BETTER states for dean than the feb 3rd states. he'll still have the money and the organization to win...will he have the credibility?
given that Dean will certainly hang in there until at least Feb 7 and the bellwether Michigan primary, the support of the heavy industrial unions now becomes the biggest prize left in the race. Kerry voted for NAFTA -- he's vulnerable here.
But the AFL-CIO wants to back a winner. Here's the question -- how well does Dean need to do on Feb 3rd to keep the industrial unions at least _neutral_ through Feb. 7? How well does he have to do, and how badly does Kerry have to get beat up, for Dean to actually get their support? is that even possible anymore?
If Dean had won EITHER Iowa or New Hampshire, he'd have the nomination locked up right now.
Kerry had to win both, and it's still not enough.
But it sure is looking more and more and more likely.
- big jimmy 1-28-2004 8:34 am