Does anyone have good info on how the NIE came out. Despite what Podhoretz says, my impression was that it wasn't "leaked." It came out through official channels. Presumably through the same official channels that have up until now been blocking publication. Is that right?

Well what happened then?

Is it the case that there was a fight all along (Cheney side vs. ?) and the non Cheney side final won and so the NIE was published? Maybe ? could be Congress. Or maybe Gates or Rice inside the administration. Both seem hard to believe frankly.

Or might it be the case that Washington has decided to end the war in Iraq and to do so they need to pull out as victors and not look like they are running away, and to do that they need to ratchet down tensions with Iran (and certainly not actually go to war with Iran!)

Or something else? Just a slip up? Or no one thought it would matter enough at this point to change anything? Or maybe it was leaked by some America hating intelligence community folks like Podhoretz says.

Seems like a real weird one. Any theories?



- jim 12-06-2007 12:30 am

I found this pre-announcement that the assessment would be done soon, would not be published, but there would probably be leaks.
- mark 12-06-2007 12:53 am

Toronto Star sez: "The decision to release parts of the National Intelligence Estimate report publicly apparently stemmed from fears that a secret report would leak and perhaps lead to confusion, although such reports on Iraq are regularly released."

That seems plausible, but euphemistic. "Confusion?" Bush looks like slightly less of an ass having this come out officially. Just ever so slightly.
- mark 12-06-2007 12:59 am

roundup of neocon blather

- mark 12-06-2007 1:23 am

Thanks for the links. As usual, I had it wrong, especially in terms of how the NIE was released.

Still, the major thing for me is what this signals about our stance towards Iran. Clearly this hurts the bomb now crowd (even as they try to spin it as helping their case - incredible!) And I guess, since the admin had access to the NIE months ago, this accounts for Bush's slight back peddling when he changed his rhetoric from "the problem is Iran's nuclear program" to "the problem is Iran's knowledge of how to have a nuclear program." And then going back even a few months further, it fits with the "bomb now" crowd moving it's arguments away from the nuclear program all together, in favor of bombing because Iran is training Iraqi fighters who are attacking US forces and supplying them with high powered IEDs.

Okay. But then why is it that lately the military has been downplaying the Iran IED connection. And not just downplaying it, but really almost congratulating Iran on having stopped the flow of weapons? The military seems almost conciliatory on this point.

So the bomb now folks really seem out of causes. There is no current WMD program, and supposed Iran backed IED attacks on US troops are way down. Can they find another cause? I can't imagine what it would be. I think ever so slightly more sane heads have won (I mean, short of a somewhat preposterous false flag attack, or a rouge force within the Iran military doing something really stupid.)

- jim 12-06-2007 8:32 pm

Bolton's hare iz in mai newz mongering teh war.
- mark 12-07-2007 9:48 pm

threats of leaks led to release

- mark 12-08-2007 1:53 am

republicans hating on the NIE, and its authors

- mark 12-08-2007 1:56 am

Not quite Ari-like, but more comfortable lying than Scotty ...

Perino: "The president could have been more precise in that language," she said, "but the president was being truthful."

(Quoted in article linked above. IIRC, the exchange this was from was covered on K.O.'s conference.)
- mark 12-08-2007 1:58 am

Okay, here's my new left field conspiracy theory about the NIE. The Cheney gang wants to attack Iran. They had a bunch of plans to create a spark to set this in motion. One by one these plans have been undermined by saner minds in Washington. All except one plan that is: have Israel attack Iran's nuclear installations. This probably will not be effective, but it will probably result in Iranian retaliation. And when that happens we will be drawn in and then we can finish the job.

But of course there is debate inside Israel just like there is debate inside Washington between pro and anti bombing factions. The anti bombing factions inside Israel (I'm guessing here) argue that Israel needs to work in conjunction with USA ("We shouldn't bomb now because the Americans are going to take care of it and we shouldn't undermine their plans by acting too rashly.") So the Cheney gang removes their blocking maneuver on the NIE and lets it fly, knowing this will cause the Israelis to think "Oh shit, the Americans aren't going to take care of it," pushing them over the edge into action on their own.

Israel bombs; Iran strikes back; America is dragged into the war.
- jim 12-25-2007 12:53 am