New Hampshire election results broken down by town. Pretty nice.
50% reporting and Clinton looks strong.
But all the towns where there was a much larger than expected turnout (some needing to request more ballots,) will also be the towns that will count slow and haven't reported yet. And more of these unexpected voters will be for Obama, so he should finish strong. Right? Right?
looks like mark penns about to be able to tell everyone to go fuck themselves. women are putting hillary over the top. guess a few tears arent such a bad thing.
are these things winner take all delegates? that seems absurd.
meanwhile romney is pulling closer. interested to see where that ends up.
57% women overall went 47% for hillary v. 34% obama at this point.
not surprisingly they were watching cnn at hillary headquarters. and now that shes won, i wish she hadnt except for the media shadenfreude.
i was in the other room (this room) so i only heard portions of this exchange. hes been acting chastened ever since. via firedog.
"Rachel Maddow just told Chris Matthews that TPM is blaming him as the personification of all the sexist crap Hillary Clinton has to take from the media (works for us), and the reason women came back to Hillary tonight after going for Obama in Iowa (exit polls say 47% for Clinton, 34% Obama).
Tweety was gobsmacked."
Damn, wish I had seen that.
I guess it will be up soon enough.
Matt Yglesias: "I don't think pissing off Chris Matthews is a good enough reason to pull the lever for Clinton, but I can certainly understand the impulse."
ive had similar thoughts to yglesias last three post except for that bit about the wilder/bradley effect. *whoosh* and im not even one of daltons famous graduates. (bastard had 29 posts today, filmed a segment for young turks and had his first article in the print edition of the atlantic monthly. i, in contast, did the dishes, windexed my tv and computer and uploaded five torrents.)
Commenter Brian makes an observation "No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." That seems to be true. Here's a chart comparing the actual results to the most recent Pollster.com current standard estimate polling average.
Just as Brian says, the difference between the Obama poll level and the Obama vote total level seems to just be your basic statistical variance. The pollsters underestimated Clinton's level of support. People who were undecided as of the last round of polling seem to have gone overwhelmingly in her direction.
[also note the relevance of this to Wilder/Bradley effect speculations]
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Where's Mac?
08 Jan 2008 11:57 pm
It's interesting how much more interested the press seems to be in the Democratic race than in the GOP one. When after Iowa there was tons of attention showered on Barack Obama and nothing on Huckabee, I figured that was just part of the vast pro-McCain conspiracy. But after the media got the McCain victory it was hoping for, there's still more talk about the Democratic result.
The thing of it is that the Republican race is really much more interesting. It's a bigger field of semi-viable contenders and it's very unpredictable. What's more, there appears to be much more separating the Republican nominees from each other in terms of policy and approach -- Mike Huckabee is really, really different from Rudy Giuliani. My feeling has kind of been that I, personally, tend to focus on the Democratic field perhaps a bit more than it deserves because I'm a liberal and I've got a mostly liberal audience, but actually it seems that everyone is playing it my way and I'm not really sure why.
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What Really Matters
08 Jan 2008 11:26 pm
Crack investigative reporter Spencer Ackerman observes that Howard Wolfson looks like Chris Elliot. I would also note that the sweater he's wearing is absurd. The man's a professional, he should wear a suit when he goes on television.
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here was another moment worth noting especially compared to russert and brian williams who were useless in their analysis. hat tip to digby for citing it. she also gives props to maddow for her matthews smackdown. ill just note that i was ahead of the curve in praising her brazeness. oh, and im up to speed on the bradley effect. has nothing to do with jumpshots. who knew?
Here's Tom Brokaw:
BROKAW: You know what I think we’re going to have to do?
MATTHEWS: Yes sir?
BROKAW: Wait for the voters to make their judgment.
MATTHEWS: Well what do we do then in the days before the ballot? We must stay home, I guess.
BROKAW: No, no we don’t stay home. There are reasons to analyze what they’re saying. We know from how the people voted today, what moved them to vote. You can take a look at that. There are a lot of issues that have not been fully explored during all this.
But we don’t have to get in the business of making judgments before the polls have closed. And trying to stampede in effect the process.
Look, I’m not just picking on us, it’s part of the culture in which we live these days. I think that the people out there are going to begin to make judgments about us if we don’t begin to temper that temptation to constantly try to get ahead of what the voters are deciding, in many cases, as we learned in New Hampshire when they went into the polling booth today or in the last three days. They were making decisions very late.
I don't know about you but I really don't like these assholes telling me what I think.
Update: Pam Spaulding, in a comment over at Pandagon, on the so-called Bradley Effect:
Oh, I just heard NBC’s Brian Williams bring up “The Bradley effect,” (aka the Wilder effect) ... I’m not sure that it applies here, given the complicating factor of gender bias, and what we can now call “The Tweety Effect,” where the misogyny of a talking head in the MSM so enrages a demographic that they go out and vote in a manner that will put egg on the face of the talking head.
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- jim 1-09-2008 4:48 am
50% reporting and Clinton looks strong.
But all the towns where there was a much larger than expected turnout (some needing to request more ballots,) will also be the towns that will count slow and haven't reported yet. And more of these unexpected voters will be for Obama, so he should finish strong. Right? Right?
- jim 1-09-2008 5:41 am
looks like mark penns about to be able to tell everyone to go fuck themselves. women are putting hillary over the top. guess a few tears arent such a bad thing.
are these things winner take all delegates? that seems absurd.
- dave 1-09-2008 5:43 am
meanwhile romney is pulling closer. interested to see where that ends up.
- dave 1-09-2008 5:45 am
57% women overall went 47% for hillary v. 34% obama at this point.
- dave 1-09-2008 6:36 am
not surprisingly they were watching cnn at hillary headquarters. and now that shes won, i wish she hadnt except for the media shadenfreude.
- dave 1-09-2008 6:37 am
i was in the other room (this room) so i only heard portions of this exchange. hes been acting chastened ever since. via firedog.
"Rachel Maddow just told Chris Matthews that TPM is blaming him as the personification of all the sexist crap Hillary Clinton has to take from the media (works for us), and the reason women came back to Hillary tonight after going for Obama in Iowa (exit polls say 47% for Clinton, 34% Obama).
Tweety was gobsmacked."
- dave 1-09-2008 7:32 am
Damn, wish I had seen that.
I guess it will be up soon enough.
- jim 1-09-2008 7:36 am
Matt Yglesias: "I don't think pissing off Chris Matthews is a good enough reason to pull the lever for Clinton, but I can certainly understand the impulse."
- jim 1-09-2008 7:50 am
ive had similar thoughts to yglesias last three post except for that bit about the wilder/bradley effect. *whoosh* and im not even one of daltons famous graduates. (bastard had 29 posts today, filmed a segment for young turks and had his first article in the print edition of the atlantic monthly. i, in contast, did the dishes, windexed my tv and computer and uploaded five torrents.)
Commenter Brian makes an observation "No one is talking about how the polls actually nailed Obama's number. Obama didn't lose this election. He stayed steady and Hillary surged ahead." That seems to be true. Here's a chart comparing the actual results to the most recent Pollster.com current standard estimate polling average.
Just as Brian says, the difference between the Obama poll level and the Obama vote total level seems to just be your basic statistical variance. The pollsters underestimated Clinton's level of support. People who were undecided as of the last round of polling seem to have gone overwhelmingly in her direction.
[also note the relevance of this to Wilder/Bradley effect speculations]
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Where's Mac?
08 Jan 2008 11:57 pm
It's interesting how much more interested the press seems to be in the Democratic race than in the GOP one. When after Iowa there was tons of attention showered on Barack Obama and nothing on Huckabee, I figured that was just part of the vast pro-McCain conspiracy. But after the media got the McCain victory it was hoping for, there's still more talk about the Democratic result.
The thing of it is that the Republican race is really much more interesting. It's a bigger field of semi-viable contenders and it's very unpredictable. What's more, there appears to be much more separating the Republican nominees from each other in terms of policy and approach -- Mike Huckabee is really, really different from Rudy Giuliani. My feeling has kind of been that I, personally, tend to focus on the Democratic field perhaps a bit more than it deserves because I'm a liberal and I've got a mostly liberal audience, but actually it seems that everyone is playing it my way and I'm not really sure why.
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What Really Matters
08 Jan 2008 11:26 pm
Crack investigative reporter Spencer Ackerman observes that Howard Wolfson looks like Chris Elliot. I would also note that the sweater he's wearing is absurd. The man's a professional, he should wear a suit when he goes on television.
Permalink :: Comments (11) ::
- dave 1-09-2008 8:29 am
here was another moment worth noting especially compared to russert and brian williams who were useless in their analysis. hat tip to digby for citing it. she also gives props to maddow for her matthews smackdown. ill just note that i was ahead of the curve in praising her brazeness. oh, and im up to speed on the bradley effect. has nothing to do with jumpshots. who knew?
Here's Tom Brokaw:
BROKAW: You know what I think we’re going to have to do?
MATTHEWS: Yes sir?
BROKAW: Wait for the voters to make their judgment.
MATTHEWS: Well what do we do then in the days before the ballot? We must stay home, I guess.
BROKAW: No, no we don’t stay home. There are reasons to analyze what they’re saying. We know from how the people voted today, what moved them to vote. You can take a look at that. There are a lot of issues that have not been fully explored during all this.
But we don’t have to get in the business of making judgments before the polls have closed. And trying to stampede in effect the process.
Look, I’m not just picking on us, it’s part of the culture in which we live these days. I think that the people out there are going to begin to make judgments about us if we don’t begin to temper that temptation to constantly try to get ahead of what the voters are deciding, in many cases, as we learned in New Hampshire when they went into the polling booth today or in the last three days. They were making decisions very late.
I don't know about you but I really don't like these assholes telling me what I think.
Update: Pam Spaulding, in a comment over at Pandagon, on the so-called Bradley Effect:
Oh, I just heard NBC’s Brian Williams bring up “The Bradley effect,” (aka the Wilder effect) ... I’m not sure that it applies here, given the complicating factor of gender bias, and what we can now call “The Tweety Effect,” where the misogyny of a talking head in the MSM so enrages a demographic that they go out and vote in a manner that will put egg on the face of the talking head.
- dave 1-09-2008 9:37 am