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Following up on the Nexus One launch I posted about below let me say a few words about the smartphone space. I want to make this brief, so of course this will be too condensed (and probably overstated) to turn out to be accurate, but it's basically how I see things at this point.
There are only three camps in the race at this point: RIM's Blackberry, Apple's iPhone, and the various Android devices.
The Blackberry is all about business email (which is all about Microsoft Exchange support.) If your business runs on Exchange and uses Blackberry then you need a Blackberry - end of story. They have this niche locked down and will continue to do so. So they have something to generate profits, but I don't see them ever breaking out of this niche. And as Microsoft continues their very slow deterioration (and specifically, as Exchange and Office give way to online, cloud based, software from people like Google) RIM's market will slowly and continuously erode. They aren't going away soon, but they are the definite third wheel here and won't ever gain ground from where they stand today.
That leaves Apple vs. Android, or, really, Apple vs. Google. This doesn't have to be a battle to the death, as the space is giant. But it's a battle nonetheless. Google's CEO Eric Schmidt left Apple's board last year over conflict of interest as the two previous allies turned their guns more and more toward the other.
Very briefly, Google (with Android) is more open than Apple's iPhone ecosystem. But the iPhone - through the Apple run online App Store - is a much more developed, and much more tightly integrated market place for third party software (3 billion app downloads and counting.) The Android marketplace is far behind at this point. And really this is all that matters. Hardware has to be good, but tons of people can build good hardware. It's the software, and how it integrates with the hardware and with the marketplace for third party software, that matters. And here Androids openness works both for and against it.
There has been lots of third party software developer unease with Apple since they totally control who can sell and what they can sell. But my guess is that money talks, and as long as it's easy to develop, and the marketplace is giant with lots of profit opportunities, people will continue to develop and put up with Apple's occasional flights of whimsy in rejecting certain apps.
Android, by courting lots of different hardware makers, has a chance to grab marketshare rapidly (and in fact, with the Droid, they are doing so.) But at the same time, different manufacturers, combined with a completely open software stack, means that fragmentation is a danger. It might turn out something like the Windows software world where it becomes difficult to support all the variations of 'Android' devices out there. Apple looks to avoid this problem by keeping very tight control over the iPhone.
So can the Android marketplace catch up with the iPhone + App store? Of course it can, but it has a ways to go. To me it's really looking a lot like a replay of the PC world Microsoft vs. Apple story. Android is like Windows in that it's trying to be all things to all people and to let partnerships with other companies (Motorola, HTC, Verizon, etc...) flesh out the ecosystem. Apple, as they did on the desktop, wants to control every detail in order to flesh out their own very specific vision. Some people will really connect with this vision; others will not. But my guess is that it won't turn out as lopsided of a contest this time as it did on the desktop. Smartphones will do less than general purpose computers, but they will do what they do better, easier, and more intuitively. And that will be enough for most people. If Apple can execute (more on this later!) I think they can "win", and if not then Android will have no problem picking up the pieces.
For the rest of them: Palm tried valiantly with the Pre - which looks to be a very solid device - but it's too late and they are dead. Nokia has nothing right now, but does have several big projects in the works. I think it's too late for them as well, but they are an awfully big horse to bet against. And Microsoft just can't seem to compete at all in the smartphone space. I'd say they are already dead (although with some legacy numbers that don't look too bad at this point, but really will by the end of the year.)
The smartphone will be the main computer for most people over the next ten years, and your choices are going to be Apple, or some kind of Android device. The race is on. But there is still another twist to come.