Political chatter... right this way...
NH DEBATE NOTES
kerry won, going away, no one tried to knock him at all and he didn't fuck up on his own.
dean stopped the bleeding by showing passion without anger.
edwards looked good to a lot of people still seeing him for the first time.
clark seems increasingly irrelevant (and, to me at least, nutty)
lieberman will drop out on tuesday and well may endorse kerry...this was kind of his "hey, remember that i was a nice guy" appearance...but he's toast and he knows it
Kucinich gave a great response on alternative energy...can't wait till Kerry starts banging that drum against Bush! otherwise i thought he seemed kind of uncomfortable, and his shockingly direct, pragmatic answer about his vote-trading with Edwards might have burst some bubbles for some of his idealistic following.
Sharpton seems a lot less entertaining now that there are actual elections happening that he has nothing to do with.
NH FORECAST
Kerry has momentum. He's got great TV commercials. Dean can't go negative again. No one else is either. Kerry's record is intimately well-known to the Boston media -- there won't be any last minute smoking gun.
Kerry's going to win.
Dean's base is staying loyal, and he's been in New Hampshire long enough to make his base big there in a way it wasn't in Iowa. He's going to come in second.
Clark and Edwards battle for a distant third. Kerry's going to pick up the departing Dean voters, not Edwards. Kerry's also probably getting most of Clark's departing voters. But you gotta believe Edwards has enough momentum to get over Clark.
MY PREDICTION:::::::::::>
Kerry 35
Dean 28
Edwards 15
Clark 14
Lieberman 5
others 3
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Kerry's on the covers of Time and Newsweek. Everyone starts to worry that he's too liberal to win. Republicans claim this is going to be Bush I vs. Dukakis all over again with the same result. Lots of stories and questions about faking the medals he threw away and about flipflopping on iraq and about being out of touch with ordinary Americans.
Kerry has to deal with the pressure without losing his cool. I don't see why he won't.
So then we get to February 3, with 8 primaries.
Everyone up til now has focused on South Carolina, since it's a must-win for Edwards and since Missouri was supposed to be a lock for Gephardt.
But in fact, Missouri is more important. And I see it as falling pretty easily for Kerry. Dean is viewed by Missouri Democrats as the prick who killed off their darling Gephardt and alienated their neighbors in Iowa. Edwards will have his money and time tied up trying to defend a strong push from Kerry AND Dean in South Carolina. Kerry's going to get most of Gephardt's machine working for him -- their campaigns were very close with each other (I don't think he gets the Gephardt endorsement officially, but he definitely gets the wink).
So Kerry looks like he's pretty good to win Missouri, the most important state. And either Kerry or Edwards wins South Carolina, the next most important state.
So what the fuck is Howard Dean going to do????
Try really hard to win in Delaware, Arizona, and New Mexico, Oklahoma, and North Dakota, and then somehow claim that one or two of those makes him a legitimate competitor?
And what the fuck is Clark going to do?
My opinion is that Clark is toast as of Tuesday. He should just admit it and get out. He won't, of course. He'll go until Feb 3. But then he's out.
And on February 4, when Kerry wins, let's say, 5 out of the 8 states -- Dean wins 2, Edwards wins 1 -- all of Dean's new best friends (Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Tom Harkin, etc) are going to call him and say, Howard, if you keep fighting now you really ARE going to be viewed as an asshole forever - time to drop out. Let's unite so we can beat Bush. Figure out how to bring your people along for the ride.
Learn to love the Kerry, y'all.
I didn't catch the NH debate. Thanks for the review.
I'm watching "This Week" from this past Sunday, and I like Kerry's poise with those two kids, George S. and George W. They're interviewing Kerry on the ABC bus somewhere in Iowa, and Kerry's schooling them. In particular, Kerry is repeatedly brushing aside horse-race questions to focus on his agenda.
JK: George, may I say something to you?
GW: Yeah.
JK: If the polls meant anything, I wouldn't be sitting here today. I mean, if you guys can't learn that the polls aren't what this is about after this race. It's about issues. It's about people. It's about people's concerns.
Actual vs (prediction)
Kerry 39 (35)
Dean 26 (28)
Clark 12 (14)
Edwards 12 (15)
Lieberman 9 (5)
others 3 (3)
what can i say, i underestimated kerry's support and was overly generous to dean, clark and edwards. ; ) and i though lieberman would get crushed and drop out, but instead he got half-crushed and stays in.
get ready to hear every nasty thing about kerry ever. opposed Gulf War I, supported Gulf War II... not easy to spin out of... but it'll be fun to watch...
this isn't a prediction just a speculation...but doesn't it seem plausible...?
feb 3rd results:
delaware - kerry
south carolina - edwards
arizona - dean
missouri - kerry
oklahoma - kerry
north dakota - kerry
new mexico - kerry
post feb 3rd
- lieberman drops out
- clark drops out
feb 7 - 3 way race in michigan and washington. these are BETTER states for dean than the feb 3rd states. he'll still have the money and the organization to win...will he have the credibility?
given that Dean will certainly hang in there until at least Feb 7 and the bellwether Michigan primary, the support of the heavy industrial unions now becomes the biggest prize left in the race. Kerry voted for NAFTA -- he's vulnerable here.
But the AFL-CIO wants to back a winner. Here's the question -- how well does Dean need to do on Feb 3rd to keep the industrial unions at least _neutral_ through Feb. 7? How well does he have to do, and how badly does Kerry have to get beat up, for Dean to actually get their support? is that even possible anymore?
If Dean had won EITHER Iowa or New Hampshire, he'd have the nomination locked up right now.
Kerry had to win both, and it's still not enough.
But it sure is looking more and more and more likely.
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- big jimmy 1-23-2004 6:13 am
NH DEBATE NOTES
kerry won, going away, no one tried to knock him at all and he didn't fuck up on his own.
dean stopped the bleeding by showing passion without anger.
edwards looked good to a lot of people still seeing him for the first time.
clark seems increasingly irrelevant (and, to me at least, nutty)
lieberman will drop out on tuesday and well may endorse kerry...this was kind of his "hey, remember that i was a nice guy" appearance...but he's toast and he knows it
Kucinich gave a great response on alternative energy...can't wait till Kerry starts banging that drum against Bush! otherwise i thought he seemed kind of uncomfortable, and his shockingly direct, pragmatic answer about his vote-trading with Edwards might have burst some bubbles for some of his idealistic following.
Sharpton seems a lot less entertaining now that there are actual elections happening that he has nothing to do with.
NH FORECAST
Kerry has momentum. He's got great TV commercials. Dean can't go negative again. No one else is either. Kerry's record is intimately well-known to the Boston media -- there won't be any last minute smoking gun.
Kerry's going to win.
Dean's base is staying loyal, and he's been in New Hampshire long enough to make his base big there in a way it wasn't in Iowa. He's going to come in second.
Clark and Edwards battle for a distant third. Kerry's going to pick up the departing Dean voters, not Edwards. Kerry's also probably getting most of Clark's departing voters. But you gotta believe Edwards has enough momentum to get over Clark.
MY PREDICTION:::::::::::>
Kerry 35
Dean 28
Edwards 15
Clark 14
Lieberman 5
others 3
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Kerry's on the covers of Time and Newsweek. Everyone starts to worry that he's too liberal to win. Republicans claim this is going to be Bush I vs. Dukakis all over again with the same result. Lots of stories and questions about faking the medals he threw away and about flipflopping on iraq and about being out of touch with ordinary Americans.
Kerry has to deal with the pressure without losing his cool. I don't see why he won't.
So then we get to February 3, with 8 primaries.
Everyone up til now has focused on South Carolina, since it's a must-win for Edwards and since Missouri was supposed to be a lock for Gephardt.
But in fact, Missouri is more important. And I see it as falling pretty easily for Kerry. Dean is viewed by Missouri Democrats as the prick who killed off their darling Gephardt and alienated their neighbors in Iowa. Edwards will have his money and time tied up trying to defend a strong push from Kerry AND Dean in South Carolina. Kerry's going to get most of Gephardt's machine working for him -- their campaigns were very close with each other (I don't think he gets the Gephardt endorsement officially, but he definitely gets the wink).
So Kerry looks like he's pretty good to win Missouri, the most important state. And either Kerry or Edwards wins South Carolina, the next most important state.
So what the fuck is Howard Dean going to do????
Try really hard to win in Delaware, Arizona, and New Mexico, Oklahoma, and North Dakota, and then somehow claim that one or two of those makes him a legitimate competitor?
And what the fuck is Clark going to do?
My opinion is that Clark is toast as of Tuesday. He should just admit it and get out. He won't, of course. He'll go until Feb 3. But then he's out.
And on February 4, when Kerry wins, let's say, 5 out of the 8 states -- Dean wins 2, Edwards wins 1 -- all of Dean's new best friends (Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Tom Harkin, etc) are going to call him and say, Howard, if you keep fighting now you really ARE going to be viewed as an asshole forever - time to drop out. Let's unite so we can beat Bush. Figure out how to bring your people along for the ride. Learn to love the Kerry, y'all.
- big jimmy 1-23-2004 6:50 am [add a comment]
Am I pleased to see you on the same page as our beloved Al Giordano or what ? Thanks for the good cheer BJ; now make sure you go check out BIG LEFT OUTSIDE.
- Frank (guest) 1-23-2004 7:07 pm [add a comment] [edit]
checked it out, it's awesome
a quick spin around the major blogs reveals that everyone agrees on kerry-dean finish in NH, no big deal there...
however i do think i'm early in predicting that kerry will win missouri
surprisingly it turns out that arizona actually has the most delegates at stake of the feb 3 states, followed by south carolina and oklahoma
so it is conceivable that dean could lose both missouri and south carolina but still look like a newly viable contender with a win in arizona. i would imagine he's going to focus there and new mexico.
clark will probably focus on oklahoma, south carolina and arizona.
the really interesting thing is going to be watching dean try to re-establish himself as the centrist in the race while positioning Kerry as too liberal to get elected.
i can't see any other winning strategy for him -- the insider/outsider thing isn't sticking. he's going to try to move back to the right of kerry!!! you heard it here first!!!
- big jimmy 1-23-2004 9:43 pm [add a comment]
is this the meetup thread for Prodigal Sons of DMTree for Kerry?
- dave 1-23-2004 10:23 pm [add a comment]
hey, i was trying to be objective!
well, that, and i was trolling for clark-heads a little maybe
- big jimmy 1-25-2004 9:26 am [add a comment]
I didn't catch the NH debate. Thanks for the review.
I'm watching "This Week" from this past Sunday, and I like Kerry's poise with those two kids, George S. and George W. They're interviewing Kerry on the ABC bus somewhere in Iowa, and Kerry's schooling them. In particular, Kerry is repeatedly brushing aside horse-race questions to focus on his agenda.
- mark 1-23-2004 8:25 am [add a comment]
Actual vs (prediction)
Kerry 39 (35)
Dean 26 (28)
Clark 12 (14)
Edwards 12 (15)
Lieberman 9 (5)
others 3 (3)
what can i say, i underestimated kerry's support and was overly generous to dean, clark and edwards. ; ) and i though lieberman would get crushed and drop out, but instead he got half-crushed and stays in.
get ready to hear every nasty thing about kerry ever. opposed Gulf War I, supported Gulf War II... not easy to spin out of... but it'll be fun to watch...
this isn't a prediction just a speculation...but doesn't it seem plausible...?
feb 3rd results:
delaware - kerry
south carolina - edwards
arizona - dean
missouri - kerry
oklahoma - kerry
north dakota - kerry
new mexico - kerry
post feb 3rd
- lieberman drops out
- clark drops out
feb 7 - 3 way race in michigan and washington. these are BETTER states for dean than the feb 3rd states. he'll still have the money and the organization to win...will he have the credibility?
given that Dean will certainly hang in there until at least Feb 7 and the bellwether Michigan primary, the support of the heavy industrial unions now becomes the biggest prize left in the race. Kerry voted for NAFTA -- he's vulnerable here.
But the AFL-CIO wants to back a winner. Here's the question -- how well does Dean need to do on Feb 3rd to keep the industrial unions at least _neutral_ through Feb. 7? How well does he have to do, and how badly does Kerry have to get beat up, for Dean to actually get their support? is that even possible anymore?
If Dean had won EITHER Iowa or New Hampshire, he'd have the nomination locked up right now.
Kerry had to win both, and it's still not enough.
But it sure is looking more and more and more likely.
- big jimmy 1-28-2004 8:34 am [add a comment]